“Running on Vibes”: Pollster Nate Silver gives 24 reasons why Trump could win

As the US presidential election enters its final stages, pollster, statistician and founder of survey aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Nate, speaks Silverlisted 24 reasons why Republican hopeful Donald Trump could win the race for the White House on his third bid.
In his recent blog, Silver explained that this election was essentially a bad decision, but that Donald Trump had gained ground.
“This election remains extremely close, but Donald Trump has gained ground. One of my biggest pet peeves is the idea that this is the Kamala Harris election to lose,” Silver said.
“I could make a few criticisms of her campaign, but if you examine the factors that have determined elections in the past, you will see that she faces difficult circumstances,” he added.
Here is the list of factors that favor Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to Nate Silver.

According to Silver, Vice President Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but the Electoral College bias favors the Republican Party by about two percentage points. Nate added that this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome in times of intense partisanship and close elections.
Silver said inflation and high prices will also play a key role in the election because they are historically very sensitive to inflation. Even though inflation has now eased, this can certainly also be attributed to the Democrats, as government spending has increased sharply during the Corona economic recovery efforts.
Silver also claimed that voters' perceptions of the economy lag significantly behind objective data and that growth in net working-class incomes has been sluggish for many years amid rising corporate profits.
Looking at the global trend, Silver said that incumbent parties around the world are doing very poorly and the incumbent's historical advantage has diminished to the point that it may now be a handicap of the incumbent rather than due to the ongoing negative perception of the country's direction.
The pollster also said that populism is often a highly effective strategy and that many Trump voters are indeed “deplorable.” Hillary Clinton meaning of the term.
According to Silver, illegal and unauthorized immigration also increased during the Biden-Harris administration amid increasing global backlash against immigration. According to Silver, this would also have an impact on votes.
Harris' far-left stance and unpopular positions in 2019 will also impact her poll prospects, Silver said. He added that Harris also didn't really have a viable strategy to explain her changing positions.
According to the pollster, cultural sentiment is shifting to the right and the left continues to pay a price for 2020's excesses on Covid, crime, “wokeness” and other issues.
Voters are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance in the first three years of Trump's term and associate the problems of 2020 with Democrats, even if they weren't in charge then, Silver said.
Silver claimed that Democrats' dominance among African-American voters and other racial and ethnic minority groups was fading as memories of the civil rights era faded. The educational polarization driving worsening Democratic performance among blue-collar voters of all races may also dominate other factors. It's possible this could work well for Democrats if Harris can make corresponding gains among white voters, who have more influence in the Electoral College, but there's no guarantee, he added.
Silver said many men, particularly young men, feel lost amid declining college enrollment, contributing to a shift to the right and a growing gender gap.
Joe Biden tried to become president until he was 86 years old. Voters had extremely valid objections to it, and it neutralizes one of Harris' biggest questions about Trump's age and cognitive fitness, Silver said.
According to the pollster, Harris also got a late start to her race because she inherited most of the staff from the poorly run Biden campaign. She's proven to be a good candidate in many ways, but it's always a big leap when the understudy is suddenly thrust into the spotlight.
Silver added that Harris wants to be the first woman president. In the only previous attempt, undecideds clearly failed against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed in the polls.
Silver said trust in the media continues to decline to catastrophic levels. One can argue about how to assign blame for this between longstanding conservative efforts to discredit the media, a secular loss of trust in institutions, and various exaggerations and hypocrisies in the press. But even legitimate criticism of Trump has difficulty reaching the mass public. For example, Trump's conviction on a range of crimes made little difference.
The pollster claimed that Trump had characteristics of a classic fraudster, but fraudsters are often effective and Trump is adept at convincing voters that he is on their side even if his election would not be in their best interests. Furthermore, Trump presents Democrats with a Three Stooges Syndrome problem: a series of plausible attacks that are so broad that they tend to cancel each other out.
According to Silver, the Democrats' college-educated consulting class has a poor sense of how to appeal to the mass public, while Trump has done more to encourage support from “weird” marginal groups of voters.
Silver said Democrats' argument that Trump poses a critical threat to democracy in the U.S. is a hard sell because Jan. 6 was ultimately a near-miss. It's counterintuitive to voters that democracy is under threat, and Democrats may have bet too much on that line of attack, he added.
Foreign policy may not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden's term. There has been a decline in democracy worldwide and an increase in interstate conflicts, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, a deterioration in US-China relations, increasing immigration flows due to global instability and a withdrawal from Afghanistan, which has a negative impact on Biden popularity, said Silver.
Silver claimed that the war between Israel and Hamas had divided the Democratic base in a way that no comparable issue had divided the Republican Party base.
According to Silver, there are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and the previous leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) supported Trump and undermined Harris' post-convention momentum.
The richest man in the world, Elon MuskHe has become a big Trump supporter and is doing everything in his power to swing the election to his side, Silver said. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists, but has shifted sharply to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to explicitly support Trump, creating a new base of money and cultural influence, he added.
Trump was almost killed in one assassination attempt, and then there was a second one against him. The first attempt was closely linked to a surge in popularity ratings for Trump, and polls show him to be significantly more popular and likeable than in 2016 or 2020, Silver said.
According to Silver, Harris lost his temper and failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the “fundamentals” favored it, but that is not the case.

A number of polls suggest Harris has a slim lead over Trump. A recent Emerson College poll shows her with just a one-point lead among likely voters — 49% to 48%. This follows previous polls that showed her with a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Trump regaining a lead over Harris among likely voters, 50% to 48%. This represents a shift from Harris' previous lead of 50% to 48% in September, after Trump led her from 50% to 49% in August.

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