Sidney Crosby, 1,600 points and the lost generation of goal sensations

Someday this week, Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby will become the 10th player in NHL history to reach 1,600 points.

That sounds right at first. Crosby has made up for career-threatening injuries in his mid-20s by remaining healthy, consistent and productive in his 20th season. His legacy is secure, his achievements well documented. #87 will retire as one of the greatest players of all time – how high he ranks on the list is in the eye of the beholder.

But the next question is about how it took the preeminent goalscorer of his era two decades to reach a milestone nine others have already struck.

We explore a lost generation Today. A 20-year window of scoring talent rarely seen at the top of NHL leaderboards, with no major milestones and legacies that understate their brilliance.

The 1,600 point club

We start with the 10 players who score 1,600 points. Here's a timeline by debut season, starting with the godfather of eternal excellence, Gordie Howe.

The two big gaps here are notable and help tell the story of the NHL's scoring environment.

Howe debuts…the schedule grows from 60 to 70 to over 80 games…the offense explodes… Eight members of the 1,600-point club debuted between 1971 and 1990…form craters… Crosby debuts.

The NHL has been around for 107 years. Still, half its 1,600-point players — Gretzky, Messier, Francis, Yzerman, Lemieux — debuted in a five-year window. It's the same with the defenders. All five scoring defensemen in league history – Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey, Al MacInnis, Phil Housley and Larry Murphy – were rookies between 1979 and 1982.

It's hardly a coincidence. And it's not their fault that they scored a lot of goals. But the group emerged amid an absurd imbalance between offense and defense, before the NHL had globalized and during its rapid expansion. A time of endless power plays and save percentages in the .870s and .880s.

The Lost Generation of Goalscorers (1996–2015)

Alex Ovechkin was expected to join Crosby this season and needs a 50-point year to become the 11th player with 1,600 points. Ovechkin has only missed 51 games in 20 seasons, a 97% attendance rate. An unimaginable rate for a man who played so hard at his peak.

Yet despite advances in fitness, nutrition, sports medicine, and a gradual decline in dangerous hits – all of which should extend careers – not a single player who debuted in the 15-year window between Jagr and Crosby/Ovechkin scored 1,600 points .

Not Teemu Selanne in 21 Seasons.
Not Joe Thornton in 24 seasons.
Not Jarome Iginla in 20 seasons.

Evgeni Malkin, who made his debut in 2006, has just surpassed 1,300 points. He is 38 years old. Patrick Kane, the 2007-08 Calder Trophy winner, is more than 300 points behind and is about to turn 36. Neither has a realistic path to the 1,600-point milestone.

If these players had performed the same way in the league 10, 20 or 30 years ago, they would have been remembered very differently. This is the reality of how rare goals were from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s. Crosby, who has been scoring at will since he was a teenager, and Ovechkin, a Herculean talent who rarely misses a game, each took 20 years to reach the mark achieved by seven boys born 12 years apart.

But Crosby and Ovechkin need no further praise. Both are pursuing Gretzky records. They were so great that they overcame the seismic scoring disadvantages of their time – bad climates, pandemics, lockouts. That's it next Class of superstars who have been greatly overshadowed.

The disappearing 500-goal scorer

Consider the 500 goal club. There are 47 members in NHL history, broken down below by decade of debut.

To date there is only three Players who made their debut in the 2000–2009 decade and scored 500 career goals. Malkin needs a goal and will be the fourth. We expect Patrick Kane and John Tavares to get there needing 29 and 43 goals, respectively.

But as Bob Cole would say, “Surely… it must be!”

• Corey Perry (430 goals) no longer has 70 to his name.
• At the age of 37, Anze Kopitar (422 goals) is a proud player who has scored an average of 24 goals over the last three seasons.
• Phil Kessel (413 goals) is now playing professional poker, so we should also know when to fold.
• It would take a lot for Brad Marchand (401 goals) to get going at his age and injury history.

So, after an average of 12 players over the previous three decades, the 2000-2009 rookie class will produce at most six 500-goal scorers. This was a milestone so routine that 14 players achieved number 500 in eight seasons.

In even one neutral Given the goal climate, not to mention a favorable one, Joe Pavelski (535 era-adjusted goals), Jeff Carter (508) and Eric Staal (507) would have fielded nine members in the 2000s. At a time when the offense wasn't stifled, Rick Nash, Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Parise, Perry, Kopitar, Marchand and Jamie Benn may have reshaped their retirement plans with 500 goals in sight.

Instead, we're just left with Ovechkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin, and probably Kane and Tavares. The group of superstars before and after the lockout are largely excluded from the milestone that has long been achievable.

Inflation factor

Inflation can be a bad word. Every developed country experienced a serious case of supply chain disruption after the pandemic. Even hockey statistics are not immune.

To illustrate the impact of scoring climate on career statistics across generations, let's use a statistic I created called the Inflation Factor. In short, a player Inflation factor is a simple calculation that expresses their career total points as a percentage of their career Era adapted Total points.

• If a player's inflation factor is 100: Your career was played in a neutral Scoring climate.
• If a player's inflation factor is below 100: Her career took place in one unfavorable Scoring climate.
  Example: Erik Karlsson's inflation factor is 92 – Karlsson's total values ​​are emptied by 8%.
• If a player's inflation factor is above 100: Her career took place in a cheap Scoring climate.
  Example: Wayne Gretzky's inflation factor is 115 – Gretzky's total values ​​are inflated by 15%.

Let's look at the inflation factor in action and identify the players most affected by the timing of their careers.

As we expected, the players who peaked during the 1996-2015 period were the most affected by bad timing. Sure, they made a lot more money than their predecessors. But their stat lines are deflated. Players like Jagr, Kane, Ovechkin, Thornton and Crosby are the hardest hit, a logical trend considering both the timing of their careers and the level of their point totals.

On the other hand, you have the Boomer generation who came to production on time. Unsurprisingly, Gretzky benefited the most – the sport's greatest points scorer, who peaked just as the goals were flying. For example, the change in inflation factor between Claude Giroux (90) and Jari Kurri (118) is revealing. Giroux is down 10% while Kurri is up 18%, so their overall stats are nearly identical compared to the era despite one 332 points(!) led by Kurri on paper.

Final Thoughts

The new era of Gen-Z scorers, led by Nathan MacKinnon (debuted in 2013), Leon Draisaitl (2014), Connor McDavid (2015) and Auston Matthews (2016), will continue to fly up the NHL career leaderboards. Maybe one of them will reach 1,600 points, with McDavid certainly the most likely at this point.

But they too were negatively affected by the timing – half a season lost between the pandemic-shortened years and a fairly neutral points climate overall. Each has an inflation factor of 93 – comparable to the Crosby/Ovechkin era a decade earlier. Their factors should gradually increase as the increase in scoring opportunities over the last few seasons improves their overall fortunes.

While we can't lose sight of a player's scores, it's clear we need to take a closer look.

The 15-year gap between the debuts of 1,600-point scorers Jagr and Crosby highlights how special that achievement is today. But it also reminds us to appreciate the lost generation who shared the ice with them. Thornton, Iginla, Malkin, Kane and Stamkos are among the many talented scorers who were born into an NHL at the wrong time for offense.

Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Visit www.adjustedhockey.com

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