Snow, cold projections with La Niña

When you go to the store these days, you can't escape the Christmas decorations.

It's a sure sign that winter is just around the corner. So it's not too early to take a look at how winter in Metro Detroit this year may be very different than last year. What does that mean?

Well, last winter was dominated by El Niño and ended up being the warmest on record. But a weak La Niñas is likely to develop this year. We have not moved into a La Niña pattern yet, but there is a 60% chance of it arriving in November and possibly lasting until early spring, which will impact temperatures and precipitation.

It is important to note that La Niña is a natural climate pattern and its effects are more noticeable in our region during the winter months. Typically, a La Niña brings us above-average precipitation and near-average temperatures.

However, there is a small difference in the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal forecasts. Similar to La Niña, it looks like we will experience a general pattern of wetter weather. The difference is in the temperature.

The CPC predicts a slightly warmer winter than average. The warmth last winter had a significant impact on our snowfall, or lack thereof. We'll have to wait and see whether temperatures lead to rain or snow this winter.

It's still unclear how strong La Niña will become, and that's certainly important. The weaker it is, the more it is influenced by other weather and climate factors, which could end up having a more dominant influence.

For example, while snowstorms impacting the entire region appear to be decreasing, lake-related snowfall is increasing around the Great Lakes, which may be related to the lack of ice cover on the lakes throughout the winter due to the warmer winter temperatures experienced.

How does all this compare to the Farmer's Almanac? The Almanac's 208th edition says Michigan should prepare for a “wet winter whirlwind” in the 2024-2025 winter season. While the Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate, studies show it is only 52% accurate. You can be the judge!

No two La Niña winters are the same, but many share common temperature and precipitation trends due to the behavior of the jet stream.