The best MLB bets today: odds, predictions and tips for Friday, October 18th

The best MLB bets today, October 18th:

As we look ahead to today's games, the baseball world is still reeling from what happened last night in Cleveland. The Guardians need to build on last night's win with a win tonight to level the series or face elimination on Saturday.

The Mets face elimination here on Friday as the Dodgers hold a 3-1 lead after stunning consecutive wins at Citi Field. What awaits us on the diamond today? Let's break them down.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-130, 7.5) at New York Mets

5:08 p.m. ET (FS1)

Is the dream of a Subway series dying today? The Mets are down 18-2 over the last two days and will need to get things together very quickly to avoid ending their postseason streak. This series featured four wins in four or more runs, so it lacked drama to say the least. The Dodgers have scored 27 runs in their three wins and will be looking for another big performance today when David Peterson leads off Kodai Senga.

Senga is expected to be a bullpen option, but captain Carlos Mendoza and his staff feel Peterson gives them the best chance. He appeared in Game 1 and allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits with a pair of punchies and a walk over 2.1 innings. He has now pitched 8.2 innings in four playoff games, with a 2.08 ERA, 3.40 FIP and 4.27 xFIP. He has five strikeouts against four walks in 36 encounters with batters.

Walks were a big part of this series, as I mentioned before it began, and the Dodgers were on the roster of good hitters. They drew nine more walks yesterday against Mets pitching that really seems to be running out of energy. Senga has allowed four runs on three hits and more walks than strikeouts in 3.1 innings, so I don't think he's a viable option in this game.

Flaherty has made two postseason starts with four runs on seven hits and an 8/3 K/BB ratio over 12.1 innings. Against the Padres in the NLDS, he had a tough outing with a lengthy layoff but seven shutout innings in Game 1. He pitched for a sizable lead, but struck out six and gave up only two singles. He gave up nine hard-hit balls, so the Mets had some good hits, including two Starling Marte barrels that resulted in outs.

At this point, I would say it's hard to imagine the Mets winning this game. The Dodgers would have to play a bullpen game in Game 6 on Sunday if that happened, and they certainly don't want to take that risk. Then they have to ask Walker Buehler to repeat his Game 3 performance in a possible Game 7. They want to end it here and I think they will. LA had the better bullpen, better starting pitching and better offense. The Dodgers had the best wRC+ against lefties in the regular season and have a .363 OBP against lefties here in the postseason, so they get on base and create opportunities.

Pick: Dodgers -130

New York Yankees (-122, 7.5) at Cleveland Guardians

8:08 p.m. ET (TBS)

As a Guardians fan, my phone blew up last night and the Cedar Point-sized emotional rollercoaster has me feeling like I have a hangover this morning. What a sequence of events in Game 3. But my answer to my friends after the fact was simple: “Win ​​tomorrow.”

The Guardians have returned to the series, but they need a win today to make it a series. And I will be completely honest with you. I have absolutely no idea what's happening today. Luis Gil hasn't pitched since September 28th. Gavin Williams hasn't pitched since September 22nd.

Gil allowed six runs, including four home runs, against the Pirates in his last start, and he honestly wasn't good after becoming the AL Rookie of the Year favorite in this betting market. Through June 14, Gil had a 2.03 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 14 starts. He had a high walking speed, but it hadn't really started up until that point. As of June 15, he had a 5.15 ERA and 5.32 FIP in 15 starts. So for him it was rightly a story of two halves.

He has yet to pitch in the postseason, and simulation games can hardly simulate what it's like to be on the mound under those bright lights, especially given the very boisterous crowd in Cleveland after what happened last night. I thought there might be a chance that Aaron Boone would decide to start Gil in Game 1 at home, but Carlos Rodon's decision worked out great as he was outstanding.

Williams made 16 starts in what was a throwaway season for him. He pitched just 76 innings and had a 4.86 ERA, but had a 3.67 FIP and 4.12 xFIP, so the underlying metrics were a bit more positive regarding his performance. He was a strikeout dealer in the minor leagues and was compared to Gerrit Cole on the way up because of the high speed and strikeouts, but also because of the similarity of his mechanics.

I have no idea what his release timing will be tonight since he too has hosted sim games, but that's hardly a representation of what happens in a game, especially when Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are in the Mixture are. Williams had major running issues as a big leaguer with a BB% of 10.2% and that is my biggest fear as a Guardians fan. He's also a 53.4% ​​fastball guy in his MLB career and has only hit 96.1 mph in the Heat. He was regularly between 98 and 99 in the minors. Maybe the playoffs and a rested arm will benefit him here.

For Cleveland, it's Game 1 or Game 2 again. The bullpen will have a big load to shoulder. And they'll probably have to start Ben Lively, Joey Cantillo or an opener tomorrow. In that regard, I could see interest in the Yankees because I could argue that the explosive potential for Williams is much higher than Gil.

However, I don't bet on the side or the total. Gil can also be unpredictable, and although Cleveland doesn't draw as many walks, any team can hit in advantageous counts. I would say Williams Over 1.5 Walks Allowed at -145 is a good bet. He exceeded that limit in 13 of his 16 regular-season starts, striking out a season-high four batters in 4.1 innings against the Yankees on August 22. I'm not sure how far he'll go, but as a young man who hasn't pitched in a long time, nerves play a role and I could well imagine him trying to nibble a lot.

Pick: Gavin Williams (CLE) Over 1.5 walks allowed (-145)