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The Guardians desperately need a win against the Yankees

Posted on by Kennedy
The Guardians desperately need a win against the Yankees

The Cleveland Guardians are facing an American League Championship Series deficit that has historically proven nearly insurmountable.

And that's before we even think about how inferior they look against the New York Yankees.

Is the season of the Guardians cooked? It's hard to imagine a different outcome – but let's think about it anyway.

“This is who we are,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said after his club kept going for possible ties or starts in Game 2 of this ALCS, only to lose 6-3 at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. “We lost two games. That's correct. We have the opportunity to go home and play in front of our fans.

“That’s this baseball team. We don't give up. We kept fighting. We did it again (Tuesday). I look forward to returning to Cleveland and playing in front of our fans.”

Will a breath of cool Lake Erie air save this club? Let's examine whether the guards are wise to keep hope alive:

The odds: Not in their favor

Let's get this out of the way: Teams that go 2-0 in a best-of-seven championship series have won 32 of 37 times, or 86.5%. The last team to beat the odds was the 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers, who rallied from NLCS deficits of 2-0 and 3-1 against the Atlanta Braves to win amid the COVID-19 bubble in Texas secured the pennant and ultimately the World Series.

Leverage: The Guardians' long-lost friend

I'm not sure if watching movies on the plane home is still a thing to motivate the boys, but the Guardians might have considered Sylvester Stallone's chemically enhanced 1987 classic Over The Top as inspiration.

What sets them apart more than almost all of their competitors is that they have the upper hand.

Still, Cleveland hasn't had the edge in any innings of this ALCS so far, ruining their chance to use their best weapons in high-leverage spots – and leaving them desperate to get back in the game.

Their loss in Game 2 was an example of what they are dealing with.

Cleveland started its nominal star, Tanner Bibee, who gave them at least four innings in two AL Division Series starts and had to spend at least that much more because the club will have to make do for the rest of the postseason after a year without right-hander Alex Cobb under strain in the bottom back.

But Bibee quickly put them in a 2-0 hole in the second inning, forcing Vogt to do the theoretically unthinkable: intentionally walk Juan Soto to load the bases for Aaron Judge.

It made sense when the accompanying move was to call up Cade Smith, their biggest reliever and a crucial ingredient in their postseason formula — even though it was the second inning. The move was smart: Smith induced a Judge sacrifice fly and escaped the jam with a useful 3-0 lead.

But Smith is best used when the Guardians have the lead, are counting outs and want to shut down the opposing middle. It was over for him in the third inning of Game 2.

The desperation resurfaced an inning later, when a walk and two singles (another Yankees error) allowed Cleveland to load the bases in the fourth against New York's Gerrit Cole, still only 0-3 was behind. Then Vogt played his high card and threw up ALDS hero David Fry to secure the score for catcher Bo Naylor.

“It was the highest leverage moment of the game, bases loaded, one out,” Vogt said. “We want to try David. We wanted to take our shot right there. We felt like this was our biggest opportunity at that point. You don’t know when you’re going to put three players against someone like Gerrit Cole.”

Right call, wrong execution: Fry hacked the first pitch, let it fly up and fouled third base. After Brayan Rocchio stared at bat three, the danger was over. Cole, who allowed 10 baserunners in 4 ⅓ innings, had broken free.

And perhaps most importantly, Fry was done for the evening and backup catcher Austin Hedges, who batted .152 on the year, was locked in the No. 8 hole. That was evident an inning later when Cleveland got to 3-2 and scored the tying score on first.

No problem for the Yankees. Reliever Clay Holmes simply threw four balls to Andrés Giménez, greeted Hedges on the field and struck him out. And it remained a 3-2 game before the Yankees extended the score to 4-2 and finally to 6-2 with Aaron Judge's home run.

“This is who we are,” says a rather ruthless Vogt. “We take risks when we do it.”

Win without rotation?

The initial pitch disparity in this ALCS has only worsened since its start. Cobb's ineffective start and subsequent injury now leaves Cleveland without a potential Game 5 starter; Bibee's inability to complete two innings puts them in another bind, but now raises speculation that the right-hander's 39-pitch outing might make him available for another start sooner.

But there is simply no end to the discrimination in sight.

Left-hander Matthew Boyd will start Game 3 and matched presumed Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal pitch for pitch over 4 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 2 of the ALDS. Still, he got just six outs in Game 5 and pitched just 39 ⅔ regular-season innings after recovering from an injury.

New York? It will counter with the reliable Clarke Schmidt, who got off to an effective ALDS start in Game 3 that turned this series in his favor. Schmidt also posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts this year.

He has been familiar with Progressive Field since October and made two relief appearances there at the 2022 ALDS.

“When you're pitching away from home with fans at your throat, it's kind of fun to have the ability to shut them up whenever you want while you're doing the job,” Schmidt said in a video call Wednesday , before the club left Cleveland

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said: “He’s gotten better and better every year. It was really cool to see that happen, but it starts with a foundation of confidence because he’s really talented.”

Boyd certainly is too. Still, there's once again a ceiling on what he might be capable of — and the likelihood that the Cade Smiths and Hunter Gaddises will be called up from the bullpen much sooner than Vogt might wish.

Game 4? The Yankees accept the postseason deal from Luis Gil, the AL's top rookie pitcher, who had 19 days to prepare for the job. Bibee could be back in Cleveland by then.

Do you feel like this is getting out of control?

Guardians: Still a good baseball team

Your current sinkhole has obscured some positive aspects. Steven Kwan extended his postseason hitting streak to 12 games, erased Kenny Lofton from Cleveland's record book and is batting .448 (13 for 29), his 13 hits trailing only Mets rookie Mark Vientos's 14 in these playoffs.

They forced the Yankee bullpen into close-and-late situations every seventh through ninth inning. Vogt is right when he says that with continued pushing, the Guardians could soon achieve a breakthrough.

“We love playing in front of our fans,” Vogt said Wednesday at home in Cleveland. “I think knowing we have three games here, we feel really good about it. Of course we would have liked to have played one in New York, but we are still very happy with our chances.”

Even if the opportunities are getting bigger and bigger.

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