The polls are clear: Kamala Harris' honeymoon is over

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Where will the 2024 election be decided?

In short, everywhere.

A new set of polls were released this week, with the presidential election still a little less than a month away. Kamala Harris' “honeymoon” wave is now officially over.

Donald Trump is on the rise. A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan this week showed him leading in the latter two; The RealClearPolitics polling average now has him ahead for the first time in months in the state of Michigan, a state that rejected Hillary Clinton in 2016 but flipped back to Democratic control in 2020.

Meanwhile, Emerson College polls in all swing states indicate that none of the candidates are ahead and are therefore beyond the margin of error.

What's really clear – what the Quinnipiac poll and every other poll on the race shows this week – is how close the race is in every state. No candidate has a lead larger than the low single digits in more than half a dozen states, and all will play an important role in the Electoral College.

What does that mean? This means that we currently have no idea what the Electoral College outcome will actually be. A change of just 1-2 points in one or two states could completely change the dynamics of the race over the next few weeks – Trump could see his lead in the Midwest slip, or Harris could see her lead collapse in Pennsylvania. The former president could lose control of North Carolina.

It really is for everyone.

The Senate is a different story. The path Democrats must take to stay in the upper chamber is becoming more difficult every day.

A Marist poll Thursday showed endangered Republican candidates in Florida and Texas, Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, stalling. Both are still in danger, but hold on – for now. In a NYT/Siena poll, both races leaned even more heavily toward Republicans. Meanwhile, Tim Sheehy is pulling away in Montana, endangering the future of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester – one of the few remaining Blue Dogs in the Senate.

Given the presumed loss of the Tester seat and the loss of the Senate seat in West Virginia, Republican control of the upper chamber appears very likely. Democratic Senate candidates are still leading in Maryland, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, but could still face a 51-49 Republican Senate next January due to an unfavorable map.

Democrats have some reasons to be frustrated right now. Aside from a very possible loss of control of the Senate, there is a broader problem here: Kamala Harris and her campaign, and the Democratic Party as a whole, have not seen their enormous advantages in fundraising and volunteer registration translate into compelling electoral advantages. And with the debates likely over, there are now comparatively few opportunities to significantly shift the poll numbers between now and Election Day.

Keep an eye out over the next few weeks as Trump and Harris try their respective Hail Marys. October is already a third over; Both candidates should be desperate.

Trump's could already be revealed. On Wednesday, he announced plans to host a mega-rally at Madison Square Garden in New York; Vice President JD Vance said he would attend Thursday. The event is being touted by the Trump campaign as an attempt to promote New York – but more likely it is just an opportunity to boost normal viewership and media coverage of an otherwise typical campaign rally.

Harris, meanwhile, is sending Tim Walz — who has been out of sight for several weeks — to Wisconsin on Monday for a series of events.

Understand the US election with The Independent's experts in our exclusive virtual event, “Harris vs. Trump: Who will make history?” Reserve your place here.