The US mainland and Florida are free from approach to the Atlantic system

We continue to follow a fault called Invest 94L as it moves westward through the Central Atlantic. Although not uncommon, the nearly due west course from the deep tropical Atlantic is an unusual trajectory for a system this late in the season, when developing systems tend to quickly turn north and east once they are near the Caribbean.

Although the developing zone appears threatening at first glance for the mainland US, 94L will pose no problems for us in the US next week as it encounters a firehose of wind shear guarding the US coasts thanks to the strengthening of fall cold fronts.

If 94L becomes a tropical depression, or nadine, over the next few days, models show it will either descend southward and weaken through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Hispaniola, or it will break up and be thrown out to sea and away from the United States

Either way, 94L isn't expected to make it very far before succumbing to the winds of climatology.

Rainmaker for the Greater Antilles

Because the low pressure circulation is well established, as we mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, it wouldn't take much additional organization of its thunderstorms for 94L to be upgraded to a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Nadine.

However, models have generally refrained from doing much with 94L in the coming days, and NHC has reduced the probability of development from 60% to 40% in the last 24 hours.

Even if 94L fails to gain traction, the system could pass close enough to the islands – including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands – starting Friday to intensify storms and cause some local flooding problems. If it eases near Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Saturday or early Sunday, it could also worsen the threat of heavy rain across Hispaniola's mountainous terrain.

Another disturbance that brought flooding rains to Central America

Meanwhile, a major rain event is looming in parts of Central America over the next few days. Over the next few days and into the weekend, a widespread area of ​​storms over the southwestern Caribbean – associated with the Central American Gyre, or CAG – is expected to spread westward into parts of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and southern Mexico.

Models don't indicate much in the way of organized development, but high rainfall amounts will likely lead to widespread flooding risk across the region by early next week.