Three keys to a BYU win over Arizona

After a two-week break, Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program are back in action. The Cougars host the Arizona Wildcats for the first time as Big 12 opponents. The game will be presented by Big Noon Kickoff and broadcast on FOX. A win would put BYU firmly at the top of the Big 12 title game. Here are three keys to a BYU win over Arizona.

If BYU wants to limit Arizona on Saturday, the Cougars will have to use Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita on third-and-long situations. Noah Fifita is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the conference. Last season, Fifita was installed as the Wildcats' starter in late September and led them to one of their best seasons ever. He finished the season with 2,869 yards, 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while completing 72.4% of his passes.

Fifita hasn't been the same in 2024 under new head coach Brett Brennan. Fifita is completing 61.5% of his passes and has already thrown as many interceptions in 2024 as he did in 2023: 6 interceptions.

Fifita's interceptions occurred primarily when he threw downfield. On throws of 10 yards or more, Fifita is completing 38% of his passes and has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

BYU needs to put Fifita in situations where he is forced to throw the ball downfield. In such situations, Fifita sets his sights on his favorite target: Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan is one of the best wide receivers in the country. However, Fifita tends to focus on McMillan and miss other open receivers downfield. Those forced throws have turned into interceptions this season.

When Fifita throws 10 yards or more downfield, he targets McMillan 53% of the time. Expect BYU to have bracket coverage over McMillan throughout the game. And don't be surprised if there's a Fifita interception because you forced a ball on McMillan.

What does BYU need to do to get Arizona into a third-and-long situation? Stop the run. Arizona doesn't run often, but they are effective in football, averaging 5.46 yards per carry. Stopping the run is the first step to achieving stops.

The Cougars are undefeated despite a lack of consistent performance from their running backs: BYU does not have a running back with over 100 rushing yards this season. BYU has used five different running backs in five games this season.

Luckily for BYU, they will have a healthy backcourt for the first time this season. LJ Martin is BYU's best running back. He is the most efficient in terms of yards per carry and has home run ability. Martin has great vision and is adept at making defenders miss shots to gain a few extra yards. Martin hasn't played since the first quarter of the SMU game.

With Martin and Sione Moa available, BYU needs to be able to establish the rushing attack.

In five games, Retzlaff – due to BYU's injuries at running back – has led the BYU offense. BYU has 1,929 total yards of offense this year, and Retzlaff has accounted for 1,362 (71%) of those yards. Retzlaff ranks 26th nationally in passing yards and leads BYU in rushing.

This is not sustainable. BYU needs a running back who can step in and be a constant threat out of the backfield.

The expanded metrics highlight an important trend for Jake Retzlaff: He is dangerous in game situations. 32% of Retzlaff's experiments come from playful action concepts. However, 47% of his yards and 67% of his touchdown throws come from play-action concepts. His yards per attempt increases from 6.5 yards in non-play-action situations to 12.0 yards in play-action concepts.

Establishing the run would open up play-action opportunities for BYU.

BYU's defense has to leave the field on third down. That was an area that plagued the BYU defense in 2023 and was a problem for the first time in 2024 against Baylor. Arizona hasn't been good on third downs this season. The Wildcats rank 115th nationally in third-down offense.

If the Cougars have a chance to get off the field, they need to capitalize on it.