Trump Makes Gains as Polls Raise Concerns About Harris Campaign | US elections 2024

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If that happens again when voters go to the polls on November 5, it would result in Trump exceeding the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win and propel him back to the Oval Office.

The consolation for Harris is that this particular outcome is unlikely to occur, as multiple polls give conflicting results when you look closely at the details.

In fact, a simulation using polling, economic and demographic data from FiveThirtyEight found that Harris still won the election 55 times out of 100 as of midday Thursday. And a Wall Street Journal poll on Friday also painted a brighter outlook, showing Harris slightly ahead in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia – enough to give her a narrow victory if that is confirmed on Election Day.

Still, the margins are confusing for Democratic strategists, considering that the vice president's campaign recently announced that it had raised $1 billion in 80 days after Harris replaced Joe Biden as the party's nominee in July . The amount far exceeds the amount raised by Trump's campaign.

As of the end of August, Trump's campaign had raised a relatively modest $309 million, although he enjoys the benefit of financial support from entrepreneur Elon Musk's Super Pac, which offers financial incentives to people in swing states to register pro-Trump voters.

Whatever the monetary advantages, Harris appears to have lost some momentum in the Rust Belt “blue wall” battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania since her Sept. 10 debate performance against Trump in Philadelphia, when she was widely considered the winner to have.

This was highlighted by a Quinnipiac University poll last Wednesday that found the five-point lead she held in Michigan the week after the debate turned into a three-point lead for Trump, 50 % to 47%; In Wisconsin, a one-point lead after the debate turned into a 2% lead for Trump. And in Pennsylvania, a six-point Harris lead halved to 3%.

One issue clouding Harris' prospects is the worsening conflict in the Middle East. Israel's offensive against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite group, threatens to further erode the support of Michigan's large ethnic Arab voting bloc, which has already angered the White House's support for Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.

The Quinnipiac poll shows Trump with a significant lead on the issue in both Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump appears to have become so confident of victory that he has begun holding rallies beyond the battlegrounds in Democratic strongholds like New York, California, Illinois and New York, even though polls suggest he has little chance of winning there. The move seems designed to create the impression of impending triumph.

With just 24 days left until Election Day, time is running out for Harris to correct her polling sputter, Democratic strategists fear. The schedule has been further shortened by twin storms Helene and Milton that have battered the southeastern U.S. over the past two weeks, keeping Harris from campaigning and providing Trump with an opportunity to spread lies and falsehoods over her and Biden's alleged failure to mount recovery efforts .

“I'm very, very concerned and very scared,” James Carville, the acknowledged mastermind of Bill Clinton's successful 1992 campaign and author of his signature slogan “It's the economy, stupid” – told MSNBC last week.

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Warning that Harris has little time left to deliver a more aggressive message to voters, Carville continued: “Today is over. You'll lose four to the hurricane… and everything will be at a standstill on the Saturday before the election. So it probably takes less than 20 days before you can really get a message out.”

He called for a targeted attack on Trump's plan to impose import tariffs – which economists have warned will fuel inflation – adding: “They have to be tough.” They have to be aggressive. You need to stop answering questions and start asking questions.”

But amid the increasing darkness, there are still bright spots for Harris. Although poll after poll gives Trump clear evidence on issues that matter most to voters — namely the economy, inflation and rising costs, and immigration — a majority of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

And just as Harris failed to translate her financial reserves into clear poll results, Trump is showing a similar failure, despite coming out ahead in some headlines.

The Wall Street Journal suggested that the reason may be that his stance on economic issues is more nuanced than at first glance. For example, Harris has a 6% lead on easy questions, suggesting she “cares about people like you.” While a majority thought Trump had the right experience to be president, 48% said he was “too extreme,” compared with 34% who said the same about Harris, according to the newspaper's poll.

Harris may not have managed to pull off an electoral victory, but her opponent – for all his bombast and resilience – has vulnerabilities and weaknesses that put a points victory within reach.