Trump's victory in every swing state is the most likely scenario – Nate Silver model

According to Nate Silver's latest forecast, Donald Trump could win all key swing states in the upcoming 2024 elections.

Silver's analysis gives Trump a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states in November, making it the most likely scenario to occur. Meanwhile, Harris has a 15.6 percent chance of winning all battleground states, the forecast shows.

Silver's simulation also shows that Harris would win the election if she took every swing state except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump is currently ahead. However, according to Silver's model, there is only a 1.7 percent chance of this happening, while the probability of Harris winning Georgia and not Arizona is 3.4 percent and the probability of the Democrats winning Arizona but not Georgia , is 2.9 percent.

According to the model, there is a 4.6 percent chance that Republicans will win every swing state except Nevada, where Harris currently leads by a very slim margin. In this scenario, the vice president would win 232 Electoral College votes and Trump would win the presidency.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Overall, Silver's forecast shows that Harris is most likely to win if Democrats win a combination of three to five of the battleground states. According to the analysis, if the vice president only won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she would have 270 electoral votes and an overall chance of victory of 86.2 percent.

Polls currently show Harris currently leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. According to FiveThirtyEight's tracker, the former president has a 0.2 point lead in Pennsylvania, while Silver's tracker shows the state tied.

Silver's prediction shows that if Harris won only Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, your chances increase to 98.9 percent. However, according to Silver's model, there is only a 2.9 percent chance of this scenario occurring.

In recent weeks, Electoral College projections have changed, showing that the probability of a Trump victory is greater than that of a Harris victory. For example, Silver's current forecast has Trump having a 53.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College election, while Harris has a 46.6 percent chance.

FiveThirtyEight's forecast has also shifted in Trump's favor, showing he has a 51 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 49 percent. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics' forecast currently shows Trump is expected to win in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 227 votes.

This comes after four national polls released this month showed Trump overtaking Harris.

Still, the race remains a back-and-forth. “The race has gone from almost back-and-forth to definitely back-and-forth,” said Jon Parker, a lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the United Kingdom Newsweek last week. However, he added that this “does not suggest that either campaign will win or lose.” Newsweek has emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.