We are just 15 days away from the 2024 election. Here is the state of affairs.

• There are only 15 days left until Election Day.
• The presidential race remains extremely close, with control of the White House just minutes away.
• The most notable part of 2024 is how close the competition was.

Election Day 2024 is just over two weeks away – the final climax of a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that remains extremely close.

The story of the 2024 race is that amid the chaos — President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris and two assassination attempts on the life of former President Donald Trump — control of the White House still hinges on a coin . turn around.

As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out, there has been little movement in national polls since Labor Day, the traditional start date of the last stretch before Election Day.

Without a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, there are no longer any major planned events that could presumably shake up the race. What remains are the unexpected “October surprises”.

The good news for Trump is that he has gained ground since his high-profile debate performance against Harris. The RealClearPolitics national average fell about 0.5 percentage points over the past week. Well-known election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with a slight lead in what remains a fractious race. According to FiveThirtyEight's national averages, Trump has narrowed Harris' lead in the three so-called blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Harris accused Trump on Friday of being “exhausted” and pointed to a series of interviews he reportedly avoided.

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“Well, when you're exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises real questions about whether you're fit for the toughest job in the world,” Harris said in Michigan, referring to a report from Politico that Trump was leaving you because of “exhaustion.” I begged for an interview.”

In response, Trump said she was a “loser” who “didn't have the energy of a rabbit.”

Instead of more traditional interviews, the former president hit the podcast scene hard. His team focuses on young men and it seems to be working. According to the New York Times, Trump leads Harris among young men “58 percent to 37 percent in the last three national Times/Siena polls.” In contrast, Harris leads to an even larger gender gap among young women.

In a time of close elections, 2024 is entering the home stretch and has the potential to be one of the closest elections ever.

The big names are about to make their appearance.

In the final stretch, both campaigns are turning to a mix of their top surrogates. Like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before her, Harris has virtually every major Democrat at her fingertips. She will run separately with the two Obamas in Georgia and Michigan, respectively. In recent days, Harris has also appeared alongside former Shark Tank star Mark Cuban. Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney and other leading Republicans will also continue to push Harris' democracy issue and attack the former president for his refusal to accept his defeat in 2020.

Harris' team has teased bigger guests. They've announced a Get Out the Vote concert featuring pop star Charli XCX's signature “Brat Green.” Democrats often turn to musicians and celebrities to make the final push. Obama concluded his re-election campaign with an election night rally in Des Moines, Iowa, accompanied by a performance by Bruce Springsteen. Clinton called on The Boss and Bon Jovi to campaign with her at her final rally in Philadelphia in 2016. The pandemic dampened the 2020 race, but there is little doubt there will be big spectacles this time around.

Trump starts early with a rally in New York's Madison Square Garden. He has never had such a deep bench or guests as glamorous as the Democrats. It's still news when his wife, former first lady Melania Trump, joins him – as she did at the Al Smith dinner on Thursday night.

The former president's entire appeal is based on breaking with traditional US policy. That's why few, if any, Republican standard-bearers ever campaign with him. His actions leading up to and during the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021 also further undermined relations, particularly with his former Vice President Mike Pence, who said Trump had endangered his family. On Friday, the co-hosts of “Fox & Friends” practically begged Trump to campaign alongside former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Instead, Trump has praised other prominent supporters such as Tesla boss Elon Musk. The world's richest man has donated around $75 million to a pro-Trump super PAC he founded. Musk also recently attended Trump's rally and is now hosting his own series of events.

Here is the all-important Electoral College map.

With these numbers in mind, a clear picture emerges of how each candidate can win.

Harris's easiest path remains what was once Biden's Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska's blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But in a close election, there is always the possibility that someone will be eliminated.

Most models predict Trump will be the next president if he wins Pennsylvania again. If he punches a hole elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by taking over a state like North Carolina — even though the Tar Heel state has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once this century (Obama's 2008 victory). There's also a possibility for Georgia, a state Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.

The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska allocates some of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. The predominantly conservative state has one swing district, Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to take the seat. As part of a broader demographic realignment, Biden handily won the district in 2020. Trump's best plan for Warren Buffett's backyard was a last-minute change to state law. But it didn't work. That means there is still a chance that Harris will win the presidency by 270 votes to 268, avoiding the possibility of a second tie in the country's history.

Trump's team once dreamed of defeating Minnesota, New Hampshire and perhaps even New Mexico against Biden. Since Harris' emergence, they have tried to hold on to North Carolina. It's entirely possible that Trump will outsmart Georgia and Arizona, taking advantage of his increased standing among black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump's best bet remains to find a way to flip at least one Great Lakes state.