What the sprint race and qualifying in Austin tell us about the 2024 USA F1 GP

As he returned to winning ways in the 2024 United States Grand Prix sprint race in Formula 1 and was on his way to real pole in Austin, Red Bull's Max Verstappen is the clear favorite for a fourth consecutive GP triumph.

But thanks to George Russell's late third-quarter crash, Verstappen's title rival Lando Norris starts on pole for McLaren after setting “the best (lap) of my career” in the crucial first runs of the third quarter.

However, the data suggests that Verstappen's most likely threat will be at Ferrari.
As we will show, the Scuderia is not only happy to be racing on a “normal” track, as Carlos Sainz put it in the post-qualifying press conference. It expects to win on Sunday at the Circuit of the Americas.

The qualifying “what if” for Verstappen and Sainz

Russell's wild crash in the penultimate corner of the final Q3 runs prevented any improvement, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Verstappen would have toppled Norris to pole on Saturday night if that hadn't happened.

First, Norris insisted: “I kind of set the bar too high because on my second lap I was like, 'Guys, I don't think I'm going to improve much here.'” On top of that, Verstappen was on his way in sector one had a lead of 0.172 seconds in incomplete laps.

But Norris was a whopping 0.5 seconds faster than Verstappen in the first few runs in the second sector, so it may have been a closer run.

Russell's crash obscured the true picture that emerged in qualifying

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Sainz also somewhat negated Russell's crash as he was “driving a very fast lap” when the yellow flags appeared. “Whether I should be on par with these two guys, whether I should beat them or not, I don’t know,” he added. “But it’s a bit of a shame to be in the stadium.”

Sainz had actually driven just 0.151 seconds slower than Verstappen in sector one and had set a personal best, but was crucially able to keep up with what Norris had achieved on his pole lap in sector one. Sainz later wondered if “it was the lower track temperature” that “brought the car to life”.

Given that the McLarens struggled to prevent their rear tires from overheating in the third sector – where Verstappen was able to pull away from Norris mid-sprint during the chase as his RB20 had the balance that allowed him to “go that far.” drive as the car allows” – the falling temperatures as dusk fell would also have given the MCL38 a boost.

The RB20 looked so forgiving that it seemed like it had been back to its F1-dominating best since the start of 2024

But Norris still praised that McLaren had “significantly improved the car” with its setup changes after the sprint. It's about how the team “understood how to adapt to the wind,” says team boss Andrea Stella.

This had led the Italian to fear that Austin would be the track of the remaining six venues in the 2024 title race, where he had expected the MCL38 to “struggle the most”.

Why Ferrari looks so strong in racing trim but has to avoid its sprint friendly fire

Verstappen's sprint win was his first ever since winning the corresponding event at the Red Bull Ring in June and he continues his unbeaten winning streak in sprints this season. The RB20 looked so forgiving that it seemed like it had been back to its F1-dominating best since the start of 2024.

Ferrari could pose Verstappen's fiercest threat, provided its drivers don't hold each other up

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

But the stopwatch tells a slightly different story – particularly regarding his lead for the sprint victory in Austin. Yesterday it was just 3.9 seconds, compared to 9.5 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton in the same sprint in 2023.

In the intense heat early on Saturday afternoon this year, Verstappen achieved an average lap time of 1:38.154 minutes in the last 14 sprint laps. The reason for this count is that Sainz finally overtook his teammate Charles Leclerc on this lap and finished third behind Norris.

The Ferrari drivers fought fiercely in the early stages of the sprint, but were not overtaken by the front runners. Instead, Sainz was able to catch and overtake Norris on the final lap – where the Briton would have almost been overtaken by Leclerc had he not defended cleverly at Turn 15. This was bizarrely investigated by the stewards after the race as it was clear that Norris had to block there.

After Sainz overtook Leclerc in the sprint, his average was just a tiny 0.009 seconds below Verstappen's. Leclerc, who was a close fourth in the sprint, was only a further 0.032 seconds slower each time (his average missing on the final lap after the battle with Norris). That's what makes Ferrari's prospects in the Main Event so encouraging.

While Sainz insisted he did not “agree” with suggestions that his battle with Leclerc had cost Ferrari the chance to chase Verstappen in the sprint, there is no denying that the Pirellis hate temperature spikes – such as those on the SF 24 would have gotten from their fight. A typical example of this is the Mercedes team, which suffered such a disaster in COTA qualifying: Hamilton was eliminated in the first qualifying and therefore even offered his upgraded parts to be used for Russell's repaired machine. “But we won’t trade,” Russell added.

In the sprint, Russell himself appeared to be a contender for victory early on, given how he initially battled and defeated the Ferraris, briefly challenging Norris at Turn 12. But he fell back to fifth place and was 8.8 seconds behind Leclerc at the finish. Hamilton was already far behind and faced the big gap to the Ferraris, which his teammate eventually fell into.

Mercedes drivers suffered in the sprint race because they put too much strain on their tires at the start

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Mercedes insiders believe that this was a direct result of the drivers putting too much pressure on the medium tires from the start – for Russell, who made his moves and later defended, and for Hamilton, who applied the pressure, just to be able to keep up with the Ferrari drivers early on.

“The reality is that we are in battle this weekend,” replied Sainz when Autosport asked how happy he and Ferrari were, on a very different type of track to the Monza-Baku-Singapore race, where it has shone in the past. to show a strong performance This era reigns. “I can’t say the same about Zandvoort and Spa – the last normal tracks we were at. Good positive progress.”

But Leclerc went a step further after qualifying fourth, claiming: “If we see the same race pace as on (Saturday) morning, (GP) race victory is certainly possible.”

Even if history and his determination suggest otherwise, the Dutchman may still decide that discretion is the better part of bravery

However, there are two major obstacles in Ferrari's path. First up is Norris – his sprint lap time average was 1:38.351 minutes, which is 0.2 seconds slower than Verstappen's top pace. But he's spent the entire race in dirty air and knows, “I don't want to do that again,” as far as destroying his tires goes. He said that this was the reason why he blocked in the sprint at Turn 1 and Sainz got past and finished second behind Verstappen.

But there were certain extenuating circumstances in the way Norris' media – like that of his rivals Red Bull and Ferrari – was used in sprint qualifying. But he had completed an extra lap on Friday evening, which may have been a factor in the way they deteriorated.

Clean air combined with advances in car set-up to deal with the strong gusts of wind mean Sainz and Leclerc could well find it harder to overtake him in the GP. Norris will likely have to be aggressive in Turn 1 too, considering the uphill-running, sharp left-hander has had so much action in the past, and Verstappen certainly won't be able to resist what could be a title-deciding move for either contender comes into contact.

It will be interesting to see how Verstappen approaches the run into Turn 1 as he now starts behind Norris

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

But even if history and his determined nature suggest otherwise, the Dutchman could still decide that discretion is the better part of bravery. Because his car has also changed since the sprint, which could well dash Ferrari's hopes.

Verstappen was switched to one of Red Bull's larger rear wings, explaining that sector two, Q3 run one, means loss of time for Norris. Red Bull motorsport consultant Helmut Marko said: “We have decided on the race set-up.”

This race will inevitably be a tire management competition on what is expected to be an even hotter day than Saturday – given the predicted absence of clouds in the sky southeast of Austin.

That's likely to make things worse for Mercedes as the W15s continue to struggle in hotter conditions, but overall it's a two-stop race with a relatively small loss of 20 seconds in pit stop time.

Considering how often the hard tires were used in FP1 – to Pirelli's surprise, nine of the ten teams put their drivers on them in this session – Pirelli believes that the medium-hard-medium strategy is the most likely strategy for is the front runner. But Autosport is aware that many teams are confident that the best strategy in 2023 was a medium-heavy approach. McLaren even reserved an extra set of brake discs and ultimately decided not to use them.

However, the extensive resurfacing of the track results in lap times being around two seconds faster, so anyone expecting an exact replica of last year could be in for a bit of a puncture in the Texas sun .

Even after the sprint on Saturday, there are still many unknowns before the main Grand Prix

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images