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Who will win the presidential election? What polls and ratings predict

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Who will win the presidential election? What polls and ratings predict

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Arizona remains a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election as more candidate visits are planned and campaigning intensifies.

With only a few weeks left until the election, it is a final stretch for all candidates and voters.

Will former President Donald Trump return to the White House with JD Vance at his side, or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?

This is what polls, ratings and historians say about Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

Who is ahead in the polls in the USA?

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here is where each candidate stood as of 9:00 a.m. October 3, 2024:

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.6%, ahead of Trump at 45.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as four percent, but recent polls show them much closer.
  • 270towin shows Harris leading Trump by 4.1% in the national polls.
  • realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris' favor, with a margin of +2.2 over Trump.

More: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here's what you should know

Who is leading the polls in Arizona?

Former President Donald Trump had a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona in most polls released last week, but polls show the race is still a dead heat in this battleground state.

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris by 1.2% in polls in Arizona.
  • 270towin shows Trump leading Harris by 0.9% in the Arizona polls.
  • Realclearpolling shows the betting odds for Arizona to win are in Trump's favor, with a margin of +1.7 over Harris.

In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll conducted last week, Trump had the widest lead, while three other polls showed closer competition among likely Arizona voters. Trump leads Harris by 6 percentage points in this Suffolk poll, but neither candidate crossed the 50 percent support threshold in the poll conducted Sept. 19-24.

Meanwhile, the Marist College Polling Institute surveyed Arizona during the same period and found that Trump had 50% support among likely voters, a percentage point ahead of Harris, who had 49% support. The Marist poll of 1,264 likely Arizona voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

In a Fox News poll of 764 likely voters in Arizona, conducted jointly by Republican and Democratic pollsters Shaw & Company Research and Beacon Research, Trump reached the 50 percent mark. In that poll, 51 percent of likely voters in Arizona supported Trump and 48 percent supported Harris. The Fox News poll was conducted September 20-24 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections comments

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections, confirming his prediction of which candidate will retake the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Polling track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different populations can often find higher margins of error.

According to Pew Research, the public's trust in opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In these two general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.

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