Whoever wins this Pennsylvania county will likely win the entire election

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The most valuable asset any candidate for office has is time. And how they spend it shows what their priorities are.

While former President Donald Trump threw a vanity party at Coachella, California, over the weekend, he hosted an arguably more important event with Latino business leaders on Saturday as part of his efforts to woo Latino voters away from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, Vice President Harris spent Sunday in Greenville, North Carolina, trying to win a state that Democrats had long been close to winning but just couldn't pull off.

But of course, all eyes have been on Pennsylvania as a pivot for months – both when Joe Biden was nominated as a candidate and now that Kamala Harris is at the top of the list.

That shows why Harris spending Monday in Erie County, Pennsylvania, is more important than people realize. Her decision to campaign there shows that she realizes how important the district will be if she wants to win.

Last week, The New York TimesSiena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer dropped a poll showing Harris with a four-point lead in the commonwealth. While polls have missed Trump voters in Pennsylvania and elsewhere in the past, and it's important to keep that in mind this time, the Harris campaign still has to be comfortable with such news. It denies her opponent a clear path to victory.

Historically, Erie County has voted Democratic. In 2000, Al Gore won the county by nine points, and in 2008, Barack Obama won by just 20 points amid the Great Recession. In 2012 he won it again by almost 17 points.

But by 2016, things had changed. Located in the northwestern part of the state and bordering the lake of the same name, Erie is the epitome of the white working class.

Nearly 74 percent of residents are non-Hispanic white. Median household income is below the national average and poverty is higher. In 2002, the Hammermill paper mill in Erie closed and General Electric Transportation also gradually left the area.

All of this made Erie fertile ground for the kind of revolt Trump led in 2016 — when he won Erie by two points. But in 2020 it came back to the Democrats. Biden won the county by just 1,417 votes in 2020, helping him win Pennsylvania.

There are indications that Democrats could have a chance in 2024. Sen. John Fetterman handily beat Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in 2022, and Gov. Josh Shapiro won the county by 20 points that same year. Shapiro's abilities in places like Erie were why some Democrats thought he was the ideal choice for vice president.

Harris also recently campaigned in similar Obama-Trump areas such as Luzerne County, where she held a large rally. And her campaign included Erie as part of a $90 million advertising buyback in August.

Harris' running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, was also sent to Erie to campaign. This makes sense considering that Walz previously had strong appeal to the white working class as a congressman. Still, it's important to note that this appeal began to fade during his final campaign for Congress, when his southern Minnesota district voted for Trump. A Republican now holds his old congressional seat.

But Trump hasn’t abandoned Erie. In fact, he held a rally there late last month. His vice presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance — who hails from Ohio, which sits right on the Erie County border — also recently rallied there.

Harris' campaign has reason to be confident in Pennsylvania. But the fact that she's now campaigning in one of the districts that represents the type of voter that has moved away from the Democrats shows that she is leaving nothing to chance in these final days before the election.