Will Invest 94L become Nadine? Threats to Florida

Cooler temperatures may have arrived in Florida this week, but storm-weary residents need to remain vigilant about the tropics, especially as there is some disturbance out there that shows potential for development, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

AccuWeather meteorologists said there are “two main areas most likely to drive tropical development over the next few days to about a week, and one or both features could still find a way to influence Florida.”

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The first system is “brewing” in the western Caribbean. The other is in the Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands.

The second system formed last week as a tropical wave off Africa. The development opportunities have been fluctuating, but have been slowly increasing recently. The National Hurricane Center early Tuesday morning estimated a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.

Expect these chances to continue to increase as we approach the Caribbean, especially between Friday and Sunday, according to AccuWeather.

“It is possible for the feature to rapidly develop into a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane as it approaches or transits the Leewards later this week,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather.

On the positive side, conditions further west could hinder further development.

The next named strikers of the season will be Nadine and Oscar.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 a.m. Oct. 15:

Will Invest94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

A well-defined low pressure area called Invest 94L over the central tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and thunderstorms. This system remains embedded in a dry air environment and development is unlikely over the next few days, the Hurricane Center said.

➤ Track Invest 94L

However, this system is expected to move generally westward and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by mid to late this week.

A tropical depression could form as the system begins to move west-northwestward and approaches or approaches the Leeward Islands later this week.

Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 60 percent.

AccuWeather meteorologists have begun calling Invest 94L a “tropical rain storm” to raise public awareness of the system.

Invest in 94L spaghetti models

Special note on spaghetti models: The illustrations span a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Will there be another tropical storm or hurricane in Florida soon?

According to AccuWeather, two factors could inhibit tropical development that could impact Florida and the southeastern United States:

The islands of the northern Caribbean.
- Mountains over the islands could tear apart any tropical system moving over land.
A complex weather pattern over the southern Atlantic, eastern Gulf Coast and the Bahamas.
- A storm that interacts with the jet stream and a high pressure area over the Southeast could be averted.
- However, if the jet stream or anticyclone weakens, a tropical system could move near Florida.

When might Florida feel the effects of a potential storm?

Any impacts to Florida likely wouldn't occur until this weekend at the earliest, AccuWeather meteorologists said.

However, “the same measures intended to potentially protect Florida from a direct hit from a large tropical system in the next week or so will lead to strong winds from the east and northeast that will raise sea levels, create dangerous surf and lead to beach erosion “Coastal flooding along the southern Atlantic coast of the USA”

What else is there and how likely is it to intensify?

Western Caribbean Sea: A widespread area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by mid to late this week.

Gradual development is possible thereafter as the system remains afloat and slowly moves west-northwest toward northern Central America.

“Based on the latest information we have and the investigation of the situation, the most likely route the brewery would take in the Western Caribbean would be further south into Central America this weekend,” DaSilva said.

“There is still a scenario where this structure could move further north and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but the chances of that happening appear to be diminishing,” DaSilva added.

Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall may occur in parts of Central America later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Chance of occurrence over 7 days: low, 30 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

When does the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

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